What is Sudan and Russia up to?

Sudan’s military leadership is moving quickly to put an end to the country’s democratic discourse, not only by assaulting the UN’s Sudan mission but also by pleasing a long-time friend, Russia.

In Sudan, six months after the military-led coup that ousted Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and put in place a military government, there is a fork in the road.

The UN-led democratic process that followed the coup is likely to come to an end soon, along with civil society’s expectations for a government free of military rule.

Burhan, Sudan’s military chief, and other military members have called for a “jihad” against Volker Perthes, the head of the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission Sudan. They have also threatened to “expel the UN special representative” from the country after Perthes made a speech recently.

Perthes said that the economic, humanitarian, and security situations are getting worse without a political agreement to go back to a good transitional route.

The military’s strong rhetoric has gotten to the point that the UN has officially called for an end to “hate speech.”

The underlying cause of these tense interactions is gradually becoming clearer. Sudan’s military has been slowly getting closer to its dictatorial ally, Russia while refusing to accept a viable democratic plan from the UN that would be good for the country.

Friendship in the traditional sense

In the years before Russia invaded Ukraine, Sudan and Russia built up their political and business ties.

It was during the Sochi summit in 2017 that Omar al-Bashir said that Sudan would be the gateway for Russia to Africa. This is what Mohammed Elnaiem, who is a Sudanese activist living in London, says.

In 2017, Sudan and Russia agreed to set up a Russian naval station on the Red Sea, which is now becoming more popular. They also agreed to let a Russian affiliate of the controversial private contractor Wagner Group mine and ship gold to Russia.

According to a variety of different statistics, gold makes up about 45 percent of the country’s total exports, which range from 26 to 30 tons each year.

In addition, gold exports have been exempt from international sanctions that were put in place after Bashir was ousted.

According to several sources, unlicensed gold exports to Russia through private flights are on the rise. People who read the British newspaper The Telegraph say that Sudan’s gold has also helped Russia deal with sanctions over the Ukraine conflict.

Sudan and Russia are also becoming closer politically.

Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemeti, is the head of the Rapid Support Forces and a vice president of the ruling military council. He met with top Russian government officials, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in Moscow on February 24.

Christine-Felice Röhrs of Sudan’s capital Khartoum’s Friedrich Ebert Foundation revealed A lot of people are worried about Hemeti because he is a representative of the Sudanese government, whether as a representative or the commander of the RSF.

Both sides are probably afraid that Sudan will be cut off from the rest of the world again as it was during the al-Bashir government, which ran from 1993 to 2019.

By Röhrs, some people are worried that they might be getting closer to a country that many people don’t like.

A European Council on Foreign Relations official says that Hemeti has been wooing the Russians the hardest, and they’ve been very happy with that.

Despite the military’s fear of being outflanked by Hemeti under General Burhan’s command, Murphy believes Burhan would be willing to work with the Kremlin.

Because their worldview is completely against any kind of involvement by Russia, Murphy sees civil society as the only way to keep Russia from having an impact in Sudan.

Without allies, society is doomed.

Meanwhile, the country’s 45 million inhabitants are facing increasingly terrible circumstances. Since the October coup, hundreds of protestors have been slain by the military.

It’s also getting worse because prices are going up, there are international sanctions, and aid from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund has been stopped.

Sudan is going to have more than 18 million hungry people by the time September comes around. This is because there have been a lot of conflicts, a lot of economic turmoil, and not enough good harvests.

Six months ago, a 10-liter canister of drinking water cost three times as much as it does today. A little box of chicken flesh contains twice as much meat as a large package. Diesel has more than doubled in price, while sugar has more than tripled. According to Röhrs, all of this is becoming a question of survival in one of the world’s poorest countries.

People have been flocking to the streets on a daily basis for the past six months, pushing for a civil administration and chanting “Military, go back to the barracks.”

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According to Elnaiem, there is no chance for the Sudanese people to have a peaceful transition to democracy if the military is involved.

This is why, despite Perthes’ desire for a democratic process, he does not endorse his call for dialogue. His goal is to make us talk, and by talking, we are giving in to the military regime and the coup.

People who live in Sudan don’t want to see Russia become more powerful, says Elnaiem.

When people try to stop the Sudanese people from having a democratic and civil state, they will be met with a lot of hard work.